Student enrollment trends are critical indicators for policy formulation and strategic decision-making in higher education, particularly within international colleges facing demographic shifts, market volatility, and growing competition. This study examines enrollment patterns across academic majors at an international college in Thailand during the 2020–2024 academic years to identify structural trajectories and explore their strategic implications for institutional management. Using secondary enrollment data, descriptive statistics (mean and standard deviation) and linear regression trend analysis were employed to investigate longitudinal changes in student numbers across programs.

Findings reveal substantial variation among majors, which can be grouped into three categories: (1) core programs with consistently high and relatively stable enrollment, (2) emerging programs showing steady growth despite smaller initial cohorts, and (3) declining programs experiencing persistent decreases despite historically large student populations. These results suggest that assessing program sustainability based solely on enrollment size at a single point in time is insufficient. Longitudinal trend analysis provides a more robust foundation for strategic evaluation, especially when considered alongside curriculum alignment with labor market demands, program positioning, instructional adaptability, leadership maturity, and external competitive pressures.

From a strategic perspective, the study underscores the importance of multi-year enrollment data as an evidence-based tool for institutional planning, resource allocation, and sustainable program development. By demonstrating how systematic longitudinal analysis can inform leadership and quality enhancement frameworks, this research contributes to higher education management scholarship and offers practical insights for international academic institutions.

Authors:
Punyawee Phuengwattanapanich, Mahidol University, Thailand

About the Presenter(s)
Miss Punyawee Phuengwattanapanich, Academic Officer at MUIC. Interests: data-driven policy and research. Project: Enrollment Trend Analysis and Strategic Implications for International Higher Education: Evidence from a Thai International College.

See this presentation on the full schedule – Saturday Schedule

Bookmark